Where Are The Hurricanes? + Shishaldin Erupts To 45,000 Feet
Where Are The Hurricanes?
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on November 30.
As recently as August, NOAA was calling for an “above normal” level of activity. The agency’s updated outlook stated that conditions would likely counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with El Niños.
Waters in the Atlantic (where the majority of storms form) are holding warmer than normal with conventional wisdom stating that a “robust” hurricane season should indeed be in order. But at the same time, the developing El Niño increases something called ‘vertical wind shear’ which can tear storms apart as they form.
NOAA bet that this tug-of-war between high SSTs and a burgeoning El Niño would be won by the former, resulting in a hotbed of hurricane sin. But they look to have bet wrong.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has been another quiet one–particularly considering the spurious global boiling rhetoric endlessly pumped through our telescreens. And at the same time, the building El Niño doesn’t appear to a particularly strong event (at least not so far). So what’s going on…? Well, answers on a postcard, because I don’t know.
We are now (as of late-Sept) approaching the end of the ‘meaningful months’ and the entire basin is holding remarkably quiet; we are well into the backend descent (see below) and the season is threatening to be yet another that passes uneventfully by.
The Narrative speaks to “a strong correlation between warming ocean temperatures and the number/strength of tropical storms”, it tells of greenhouses gasses “creating more energy for tropical disturbances”.
So I ask again, where are the hurricanes?
Hurricane Data Show Now Trend
Experienced data analyst, Zoe Phin, has looked into the the claim that “increasing CO2 emissions are leading to more frequent and intense hurricanes”.
Phin has already dealt with Atlantic hurricanes (linked here), and –SPOILER- found no trend. But here she analyzes the global data.
It is definitely true that the number of detected hurricanes has increased, writes Phin. This is due to better sensing technology. But aside from detection there is also a matter of how one counts the frequency of hurricanes. Does it make sense to count a 6-hour Category 3 storm the same as a 42-hour Category 3 storm?
Of course it doesn’t, such a thing would be misleading — but that is exactly what the climate cabal do. A far better methodology would be to count the hours spent in certain wind speed categories — and this is exactly what Phin did.
Below are the results from her analysis.
Note: 10yr CMA is 10-Year Centered Moving Average
Category 1 = cyclic/no-trend:
Category 2 = an initial increase, but decreasing since the mid-1990s:
Category 3 = increase, but on the decline since mid-1990s, with Category 4 = cyclic/no-trend:
And Category 5 = Decrease:
Featured below is the combined data for category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes.
Overall, no trend is revealed, just natural, cyclic motions — the ‘fingerprints of global boiling’ are not present in the hurricane data. This is irrefutable. The alarmists have backed the wrong pony, as they have a history of doing: polar bears, Greenland ice, the Great Barrier Reef, etc. etc.
Combined Data = No Trend:
This data shouldn’t be considered contentious — it’s data, honestly collated and logically framed.
Shishaldin Erupts To 45,000 Feet
The 12th eruptive episode in just two days culminated in a vigorous eruption at Alaska’s Shishaldin Volcano on September 25.
Increasing tremors forewarned of the coming explosion, most notably Monday’s volcanic-seismic tremor starting at 05:42 local time which resulted in a rich plume firing to an altitude of 45,000 ft (14 km) — a stratospheric injection.
The explosion was associated with impressive volcanic lightning:
Visibility of the new eruptive phase was limited due to dense clouds.
Thus, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) raised the alert level for the volcano to Red. The National Weather Service has issued a SIGMET for this ash cloud, with an ‘Ash Advisory’ issued for False Pass, and a Special Weather Statement for possible trace ash on Cold Bay, King Cove, and Sand Point.
Activity is still ongoing at the volcano, though at a reduced level — ash ejections to 25,000 feet were noted on Tuesday.
Volcanic eruptions are one of the key climatic forcings that will drive Earth into its next bout of global cooling.
They have been shown to increase in both number and explosivity during times of prolonged solar decline, with one of the mechanisms thought to be tied to an influx of cosmic rays (CRs) penetrating and exciting silica-rich magma. During solar minimums the Sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases, allowing more CRs to enter the inner solar system, including our planet’s atmosphere.
More cosmic rays = more volcanic eruptions = more atmospheric particulates to block solar energy.
Meanwhile in northern Spain 30 degrees all this weekend thats 10 degrees above the average and all this after a record hot breaking august but you only Talk about what you want and always refuse to adress the sad reality.
You cherry-picked a small region of a small country and offered an example of a wavy ‘meridional’ jet stream flow as proof, I assume, of CAGW
If only people like you could comprehend how far from reality/commonsense you have fallen.
Im not in the AGW party but my region used to be snowy all winter until not too long ago. You dont see that happening no more and thats facts!
I watch ‘aqui la tierra’ every day and indeed, the winter 2022-2023 was one with very little snow amounts. But, that was not the case for the winters before the last one. Look at the data and don’t think that your personal feelings are the right ones.
Finally someone else other than myself speaks up about the deception tactics used by Electroverse. Only focusing on cold and not even mentioning the heat, which mind you is far more extreme than the ‘cold’ – and said ‘cold’ is often totally fabricated by Electroverse.
Oh look, the Blowering Blowhard has arisen with its CAGW Cult messaging.
Why are there no good picture, even on X? They had a long warning and there is no videos?????????? WHY? Seems Suspicious to me. Did some laser start this thing erupting and they don’t want any one to know? The Global Warming NAZI’s are capable of anything to keep their SCAM GOING. I wouldn’t put it past them. No videos are a definitely sign something’s not right. Every one has a CELL PHONE!
Cap’s text says: “Visibility of the new eruptive phase was limited due to dense clouds.”
I’m not all that good on the time conversions but if I have it right, Shishaldin erupted at about 4 AM local time. So we have dense cloud cover + darkness, both limiting the ability for viewing this event.
It’s on a remote island where there has been storm after storm for months. No vizzz.
Also snowing at Mt Hood Oregon USSA, no vizzzzzzzzzzzz:
https://www.timberlinelodge.com/snowcameras//palmerbottom.jpg?nocache=1695834147
Next storm Gulf of Alaska tomorrow wind 88mph waves 27 feet every 10 seconds raining sideways same as it did all summer there.:
https://www.windy.com/-Show—add-more-layers/overlays?gust,2023092915,48.225,-164.443,5,i:pressure,m:eTsair
Sweetie,
There are no photos or videos because NO ONE lives there. Cell phones? Don’t work if there aren’t cell towers.
The Aleutians are 1100 miles (1800km) long and consist of 150 islands. There are only 7 communities that exist there, mostly populated by Alaskan Natives who fish for a living. Next, the weather there is crappy. Mostly rainy, windy and foggy. The seas in the area are treacherous. The day the volcano blew THIS time, it was as usual nasty weather. Between the weather and ash cloud, the brave folks at the Coast Guard would never have gone for a look see. Does this help?
Snowing on the Crystal Mtn and Mt Bachelor cams from the volcano plume. Great pics of the Northern Lights from Alaska from solar activity prior to the eruption. Lots of quakes last 30 days from solar activity. Mag spike from solar activity and the Proton Chart reading is above threshold from solar activity. SO2 plume thick mixing with plumes from Hawaii and Mexi volcanos which were from solar activity same as it ever was.
https://www.mtbachelor.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain
https://www.crystalmountainresort.com/the-mountain/mountain-report-and-webcams/webcams
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=200165
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=40.94671,-177.49512&extent=63.45051,-151.47949&range=month&settings=true
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/carrington-9.appspot.com/o/spaceWeatherNews%2Fgoes_mag.png?alt=media
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/carrington-9.appspot.com/o/spaceWeatherNews%2Fgoes_electron.png?alt=media
https://www.windy.com/-Show—add-more-layers/overlays?tcso2,49.268,-110.303,4,i:pressure,m:eY5acGb
https://www.windy.com/-Show—add-more-layers/overlays?rain,45.737,-125.024,6,i:pressure,m:eY5acGb
Atlantic hurricanes start off as a cluster of thunder storms over West Africa. As a cluster moves over the Atlantic there’s a small chance that it’ll develop into a tropical storm, some of which then increase to hurricane strength. The exception to this rule are storms that form over the Caribbean sea/Gulf of Mexico. Day time temperatures over W Africa have often been well below average this summer, meaning less energy to help thunderstorms form, possibly resulting in fewer hurricanes.
Hurricanes are most likely to form around 10 degrees north, due to the corriolis effect at this latitude being ideal to start the storm spinning. If the Azores high is further south, or stronger than average the latitude at which the clusters of thunderstorms occur will be further south meaning fewer will spin up into storms. It’s likely that since July the Azores high as been further south than average giving the UK our relatively wet summer.
Just my thoughts as to why it’s been a relatively quiet hurricane season, plus the majority of those that did form stayed out at sea. These may be contributing factors or the reason may be something I can’t think of.
Not one hurricane made landfall in the US this September. Extremely uneventful. There were a few fishes here and there in the Atlantic, but nothing to write home about. Even in SC, no majors have hit that state in 34 years now. (as of Sept 2023)
The trend is clearly down for major hurricane landfalls, especially on the east coast. The frequency of major hurricane landfalls is declining. Long Island has not had one since 1938 and we have not seen any “Camille” type hurricanes or “Labor Day 1935” type hurricanes since that time either. The recent hurricane in the US have not nearly been as impactful or widespread as to wind damages (sustained winds) compared to the earlier ones thru the 1980’s. So the data makes sense that cat 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes have seen a decreasing trend since 1995, worldwide. Also worth mentioning is that the NHC did not name sub-tropical cyclones before 2002; therefore, the average number of tropical cyclones each year has basically remained unchanged over the long term period.
I can only hope in Ecuador the weather ‘men’ are wrong as they often are about flooding due to to elnino next month, a drought in the andes.